I hate Fantasy Football

A lot of leagues had their first week of playoffs this week, so if you've been subjected to whiny (or gloating) sob stories already, I apologize. Here's mine though:

Our league has 6 playoff spots; the division winners get byes in the first round and only the top 4 get money back. I entered the playoffs as the #5 seed, just a game behind the division winner despite scoring more points than anyone else in the league over the course of the season (Points Scored is a better indicator of a team's true talent level, as it does away with all the randomness of head to head matchups). I averaged almost 5 points more a game than the #2 in points scored! My team is behemoth. Over the past 6 weeks, I've failed to break 100 just once and have averaged 123.7 points a game.

My sob story actually starts last week though. The last week of the regular season, and the division crown (and the bye that went along with it!) was up for grabs. I scored 139.5 points - the second most points scored in a single week over the course of the entire season in our league. The only team to beat that number was, of course, the team that I was playing at the time - they put up over 150 points!

So, okay, no big deal. I am confident in my team's ability and I know that I have a pretty decent matchup in the first round. I'm facing the #4 seed who last broke 100 points in week 8 and has averaged just 83.6 points. In visual form:

Averaging almost 50% more than your opponent seems like a sure-fire win, right?

Wrong!

Heading into tonight I am down by 36.7 points, though I still have two players left to go and my opponent has just one. So I have a slim chance to win, but the two players I have left are averaging 23.4 and 13.7 points respectively, so if they just put up their average I would need his player to get blanked (and it's Atlanta's kicker, so that's pretty unlikely). I need my two guys to both have big days and his player to do close to nothing. So what went wrong?

My players basically put up the numbers they were expected to; I'm projected to score ~120 points which would be in line with my average. Instead, it's what did his players do:

• Russel Wilson has averaged 20.2 points this year and had scored over 22.5 points just twice before this week. He scored 29.3.
• DeMarco Murray has averaged 17.9 points this year and had scored over 21.5 points just twice before this week. He scored 28.8
• AJ Green has averaged 8.1 points this year and had not once broken the 20 point barrier. He had scored over 12.5 points just twice before this week. He scored 28.4.

Those 3 players alone add up to more than my opponent had been averaging! Needless to say, I am not happy with how this has played out.